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Of a possible local crisis refinancing

16 October 2019

Of a possible local crisis refinancing

The banking sector in Russia things are bad. In 2020 the entire banking system of the Russian Federation will face a local crisis of refinancing - this view was expressed by Valery Piven, who is the Deputy Director of the group ratings of financial institutions. He says - “ the introduction of new regulatory mechanisms of the Central Bank, as we expect, will trigger a local crisis of refinancing. Those borrowers for whom payment of previous loans tied to lending and the attraction of new, most likely, will remain under threat and will put pressure on the final level of delay”.


The Piven focuses on the fact that problems will arise due to the requirements of the Bank of Russia that will be associated with the calculation of the debt burden of borrowers. In connection with the issuance of unsecured loans, Russian banks will be forced to accurately calculate the performance of the debt burden from borrowers. The granting of loans - it laborious. The budget for indebted customers requires a greater allocation of reserves.

 

After the recent statistics of National Bureau of credit stories in the order of 5 million indebted citizens of Russia, and it is 11.3%, spent on repayment of loans of the order of half the amount of their income every month. If we consider the figures for the first quarter of 2019, banks issued loans with a PD above 50%, which is a large sum for the majority of citizens of the Russian Federation.

 

Refinancing loans will not be in any way limited. Innovations for the calculation of PD will allow the banks to simplify the task results of the remedies is unreasonably akreditovano the borrower. Such innovations will save the banks from refinancing loans. Starting in 2016, the volume of loans required for refinancing only grows. In 2017 the share of such loans in the new loans reached 20%. Data for 2018 and 2019 at the moment.